When the Federal Reserve makes a move, it often dominates the headlines, and for good reason. Rate decisions can ripple across the economy, influencing borrowing costs, investment returns, and consumer confidence.
But how much does Fed policy really impact mortgage rates? The answer is more than you might think, but not in the way most people assume.
What the Fed Actually Controls
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. What it does control is the federal funds rate, which is the short-term rate banks charge each other for overnight lending. Changes to this rate affect how expensive or affordable it is to borrow money in general.
When the Fed raises rates, it is usually aiming to slow inflation and cool an overheated economy. When it cuts rates, it is trying to spur growth by making credit more accessible. Those shifts influence everything from credit cards to car loans, and indirectly, mortgage rates too.
Fed Policy & Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates tend to move based on investor expectations about long-term inflation and economic growth, which are strongly influenced by the Fed’s actions and outlook.
Rather than tracking the federal funds rate itself, mortgage rates often follow the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Here’s how that typically plays out:
- When the Fed raises rates: Treasury yields often rise as investors expect slower growth and tighter financial conditions. This usually causes mortgage rates to increase.
- When the Fed lowers rates: Treasury yields often fall as investors anticipate easier borrowing and financial conditions. This usually causes mortgage rates to decrease.
Other Factors
Even when the Fed stands still, mortgage rates can move. That’s because they’re influenced by a broader mix of factors.
- Inflation: Higher inflation pushes rates up, while lower inflation pulls them down.
- Economic momentum: Strong job or spending data can lift rates, while weak data tends to lower them.
- Global events: Economic uncertainty or global demand for U.S. bonds can move rates independently of what the Fed does.
What This Means for You
While it’s natural to pay attention to Fed meetings, trying to time your mortgage around those decisions can be challenging. Markets often move faster, and differently, than most expect.
At JGP Wealth Management, we help clients make decisions that align with their goals, not the headlines. Whether you’re planning a home purchase, managing debt, or considering how housing fits into your broader wealth picture, understanding how interest rate policy fits into the bigger story is key.
